Poland emerged as Europe’s third largest photo voltaic market in 2022, pushed by the speedy progress of PV micro-installations under 50 kW in measurement, however this 12 months is beginning to look totally different. Marcin Ślęzak, chief industrial officer of Warsaw-based Menlo Electrical, lately spoke pv journal about modifications within the demand facet and expertise preferences on this thriving market.
Poland would be the third largest photo voltaic market in Europe in 2022, with 4.9 GW put in. What can we anticipate this 12 months?
It is going to be totally different. Final 12 months, near 80% of recent PV installations got here from the residential market phase. This 12 months, there are two elements limiting its progress. First is the transition from web metering to web billing that was introduced final spring, and the second is the federal government’s determination to freeze electrical energy costs for shoppers who keep inside sure ranges of electrical energy consumption. In different phrases, the federal government has set three ranges of vitality consumption at 2000 kWh, 2600 kWh and 3000 kWh/12 months, the place the final stage is reserved for giant households, farmers, and senior residents. Those that don’t exceed these limits will preserve the vitality costs from final 12 months, and a few pays new costs which might be 20% to 22% larger. It’s anticipated that not many households will be capable to keep inside these limits, however even then the very details about the frozen costs has cooled the demand.
In the meantime, we see rising demand within the industrial and industrial (C&I) phase pushed by two elements: electrical energy costs haven’t been frozen for them, so they’re uncovered to market costs which might be comparatively excessive, and corporations are additionally beneath strain. to decarbonize beneath initiatives equivalent to RE100. In brief, I anticipate the market to keep up final 12 months’s volumes, however progress shall be pushed by the C&I sector fairly than residential. For instance, Poland’s main supplier of photovoltaic options for enterprise Quanta at present has over 100 MW of pure C&I PV initiatives of their pipeline.
You talked about the transition from web metering to web billing, which initially had a powerful adverse affect in the marketplace – some firms even reported chapter. Has the market tailored to this alteration?
Earlier than the swap, individuals have been panic shopping for. When you have a look at our residential gross sales in Poland, 80% of them occurred within the interval January-March. In April, the market disappeared. In Could, the motion began slowly. However at this level, individuals know the way web billing works, so it isn’t stopping them from putting in photo voltaic prefer it used to. Within the case of Menlo, Poland represents 30% of our revenues so we didn’t really feel the shock as a result of on the time we had robust demand from Germany, the Baltic states, and southern Europe.
Photo voltaic has been the highest winner within the newest renewables auctions, however general uptake has been disappointing, as massive, unsubsidized PV initiatives have begun to achieve market share. What can we anticipate from the utility-scale PV market in Poland?
It is vitally tough to say. In rejecting native laws, there are two elements to contemplate. The numerous drop in costs for photo voltaic modules pushed by the discount in polysilicon costs has created a powerful expectation of diminished worth developments, so traders are reluctant to purchase now and look forward to to additional scale back the worth. In the meantime, there’s a massive hole within the provide of enormous inverters. So, market leaders like Sungrow and Huawei have a backlog of orders from final 12 months that shall be fulfilled quickly in September or October of this 12 months. These two elements prolonged the planning part for an additional six to 9 months and slowed utility-scale PV growth in Poland.
As a number one distributor in Poland, what does Menlo Electrical see by way of the expertise preferences of undertaking builders?
Clients observe new applied sciences that guarantee larger effectivity and yield. By way of PV modules, for instance, about 95% of our JinkoSolar presents are their n-type TOPCon merchandise. The newest TOPCon merchandise stand out for larger effectivity (as much as 23%), lengthy life (30 years), and low degradation (solely 0,4%/12 months). What’s extra vital in markets equivalent to Poland, the UK and Scandinavia, that are extra shaded than the remainder of Europe, is the higher weak gentle response that such modules can produce, including an extra two hours of manufacturing in a day.
In the meantime, massive inverters with 350 kW energy entice quite a lot of consideration, however they don’t seem to be extensively accessible so we can’t discuss their advantages. In the meantime, this 12 months FoxESS, Sungrow, and SolarEdge have efficiently launched hybrid inverters together with storage options that already symbolize 60-70% of our inverter gross sales. We’re totally stocked with FoxESS and Sungrow hybrid options and may ship them throughout Europe inside 5 working days. Nevertheless, Polish households are nonetheless reluctant to put in batteries and are probably ready for extra authorities help. However we see that C&I and utility-scale initiatives are planning batteries and already putting in hybrid inverters. We additionally anticipate the demand for microinverters to accentuate in Poland and we’re prepared to produce it with TSUN merchandise.
Menlo Electrical launched the Power to Energy Your Future charity program final 12 months to offer free PV installations for establishments that care for youngsters in Ukraine. What occurred to this undertaking?
We signed the contract for 10 installations, with a complete energy of 300 kW. We’re about to begin the primary set up of a youngsters’s hospital in Chernigov, in northern Ukraine. We’ve already obtained the parts for the opposite two installations due to the help of our companions Deye and FoxESS. Up to now, we’ve delivered free installations in Poland, Romania, and shortly in Bulgaria. Our enterprise companions, equivalent to JinkoSolar and Sungrow, we’re all very inquisitive about collaborating with such charity initiatives and are prepared to assist.
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