The brand new version of the Worldwide Know-how Roadmap for Photovoltaic (ITRPV), revealed this week, discovered that 295 GW of PV modules had been shipped in 2022, and that the costs of silicon PV modules fell by 7% within the 12 months . The report discovered that value premiums for n-type modules at the moment are marginal, and the expertise has grown to signify 15% of the market, and is anticipated to proceed rising within the coming decade.
This week sees the publication of the annual ITRPV report, compiled by the German engineering affiliation VDMA. Now he is 14th version, the report captures in-depth expertise tendencies throughout the availability chain for silicon PV merchandise. VDMA calculates PV module shipments in 2022 at 295 GW, with 258 GW put in and the remainder nonetheless in transit or warehouse.
ITRPV discovered that, by the top of 2022, the weighted common spot value for silicon PV modules fell by 7% in comparison with final 12 months, reaching $0.228/W. The report additionally notes the rising market share for n-type applied sciences, and that the premium value for it’s now marginal – solely two tenths of a cent above the typical of $0.230/W.
When it comes to manufacturing capability, the VDMA discovered that nearly 600 GW had been on-line on the finish of final 12 months, with silicon crystal applied sciences representing 95% of the market. The brand new factories coming on-line at the moment normally have at the least 2 GW of capability, and that is anticipated to extend to five GW in the long run.
Giant wafer codecs (182mm and 210mm) at the moment signify greater than 60% of the market, with codecs 166mm and smaller anticipated to vanish from the market fully by 2027. VDMA additionally expects codecs which is bigger than 210mm shall be seen after 2025, representing solely a small market. share within the subsequent decade. The division between these two main codecs shouldn’t be but clear, however all new manufacturing strains are able to processing each.
Monocrystalline silicon now accounts for 97% of manufacturing, and the report expects older multicrystalline applied sciences to vanish completely within the close to future. Gallium doping has now turn out to be mainstream once more, with the boron doping that changed it additionally anticipated to vanish by the top of this 12 months.
PERC (passivated emitter rear contact) stays the main cell expertise in the meanwhile, accounting for round 70% of the market, however the VDMA says its alternative with TOPCon (tunnel oxide passivated contact) is now effectively underway. . TOPCon is anticipated to achieve a market share of 60%, heterojunction 19% and again contact applied sciences 5% by 2033, based on the report.
VDMA analysis discovered that efforts to cut back silver consumption proceed quicker than predicted by the 2022 ITRPV, and have now reached a mean of 10mg/W. This could fall to six.5mg within the subsequent decade , regardless of the expansion of n-type applied sciences that require extra silver than PERC. “The TOPCon of mass manufacturing by Tier 1 producers in China is reported to be, on the finish of 2022, at a decrease degree of consumption 2 to five years forward of our forecast,” says the VDMA.
ITRPV stays conservative about changing silver, nonetheless. It expects copper plating to be launched to mass manufacturing within the subsequent decade, however says it can signify solely 7.5% of the market in 2033. “Technical points associated to reliability and adhesion have to be resolved earlier than different metallization strategies may be launched,” VDMA states. “Acceptable tools and processes should even be prepared for mass manufacturing. Silver is anticipated to stay essentially the most extensively used entrance metallization materials for crystalline silicon cells within the coming years.
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