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Annual floating solar additions to top 6 GW by 2031, says WoodMac – pv magazine International


The worldwide floating photo voltaic (FPV) market is predicted to proceed its regular progress, because the Asia-Pacific area continues to steer demand.

The worldwide FPV fleet is predicted to develop at a gentle fee as land shortage and rising land prices for ground-mounted PV initiatives proceed to drive demand. By 2031, annual FPV capability additions are anticipated to exceed the 6 GW threshold, in line with analysis agency Wooden Mackenzie.

Fifteen international locations are estimated to exceed 500 MW of cumulative FPV installations by 2031. China, India, and Indonesia, which is able to account for practically 70% of complete FPV demand in 2022, are projected to stay within the lead.

WoodMac expects FPV to have a gentle market share in comparison with complete international photo voltaic demand, with the compounded annual progress fee (CAGR) for FPV anticipated to extend by 15% within the 2022-31 interval.

“Regardless of growth prices of FPVs starting from 20-50% greater than comparable initiatives on land, elevated competitors within the developer and EPC panorama will assist drive prices down within the sector,” Ting Yu, a Wooden Mackenzie marketing consultant, stated on the SNEC PV Energy Expo in Shanghai this week.

The Asia-Pacific market will proceed to steer the demand. The area has roughly 3 GW of floating photo voltaic initiatives by 2022, capturing over 90% of the worldwide FPV market. In China, the cumulative FPV capability is predicted to cross 13 GW by 2031 at a 12% CAGR over the subsequent 10 years.

“China will proceed to prepared the ground in floating photo voltaic installations. The nation has been in a position to make use of flooded coal mines which were decommissioned to develop floating photo voltaic,” stated Yu.

With nearly 150 MW, Europe is the second largest area for FPV demand. The Netherlands, which represents 32% of the European FPV market in 2022, is the main developer of FPV initiatives in Europe, adopted by France.

The Netherlands is residence to the most important FPV undertaking exterior the Asia-Pacific area – the 41.4 MW Sellingen floating photo voltaic park, which is able to come on-line in 2021. Nonetheless, WoodMac predicts gradual progress for the Dutch market after 2025 “as the primary areas would have been. developed at this level.”

For the US, floating photo voltaic CAGR is estimated to be roughly 13% via 2031, with progress pushed by areas with excessive demand for photo voltaic however costly land prices, together with California, Florida, and New Jersey. .

“Total, the floating photo voltaic trade is seeing excessive prices in all market segments, attributable to part prices and different comfortable value will increase, because of provide chain constraints of provide in 2022,” stated Yu.

For instance, the rise within the worth of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) is the primary driver of the excessive structural steadiness of system (SBOS) value of FPV. Nonetheless, WoodMac expects prices to fall as the provision chain expands.

In accordance with S&P World, 3.4 GW of floating PV capability was put in worldwide by the tip of 2021. The market intelligence agency predicts that international floating PV demand will attain 14 GW by 2026. About 92% of these installations are prone to be constructed within the Asia-Pacific area, pushed by favorable insurance policies and set up targets, says S&P World.

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