The record-breaking dimension and bustling corridor of Enex Expo exhibits that the Polish PV market has no intention of slowing down. Whereas final 12 months’s shift from internet metering to internet billing is anticipated to proceed to reverberate via the residential photo voltaic market, the industrial and industrial (C&I) and utility-scale PV segments of the market are poised to select up the slack.
The 2023 version of Enex Expo displays the robust development that the Polish photo voltaic sector has skilled in recent times. It attracted a wholesome roll name of main producers and native gamers, with inverter and warmth pump producers taking middle stage.
The occasion was held on March 8 and March 9 in Targi Kielce, about 200 kilometers south of Warsaw. It attracted 323 firms from 15 international locations and 19,600 guests, unfold over a floor of 33 096 m2. In accordance with the organizers, it is a record-breaking version, from 190 exhibitors and 7868 guests welcomed in 2022 on a floor of 15 550 sq. meters.
To the shock of some exhibitors and attendees, final 12 months’s adjustments in laws for the distributed technology PV phase didn’t dampen enthusiasm on the present ground.
In different phrases, the residential rooftop PV sector in Poland underwent a serious change within the spring of final 12 months when new provisions had been launched for PV “micro-installations” as much as 50 kW in dimension. The brand new internet billing system replaces the web metering scheme that has been in place since 2016, jeopardizing what has change into the nation’s key PV deployment engine.
In the course of final 12 months, a number of key gamers within the Polish PV sector reported vital monetary losses, and a few set up firms even went bankrupt. Nonetheless, Poland managed to put in 4.9 GW of photo voltaic PV in 2022, in line with Photo voltaic Energy Europe information, making it the third largest market in Europe, after Germany and Spain.
“Virtually 90% of PV installations in 2022 will come from prosumers,” stated Bogdan Szymanski, vp of the Polish PV Affiliation (SBF Polska PV).
In accordance with Szymanski, the market is anticipated to stay on the expansion trajectory however with a shift from micro-installations to utility-scale.
“This 12 months, about 50% of latest installations will come from prosumers,” he stated. “Alternatively, many 100 MW or 200 MW pipeline tasks shall be applied after they’ve emerged from long-standing allowing procedures.”
The C&I PV market share can also be anticipated to make a big contribution to the general complete this 12 months.
“Final 12 months, we witnessed the awakening of the C&I PV market share in Poland,” stated Maciej Borowiak, vp of SBF Polska PV and cofounder of PV set up firm Brewa. “Electrical energy costs are 5 instances larger than four-five years in the past with a median of PLZ 1,200 ($273)/MW and SMEs are beginning to swap to PV as a protect towards worth volatility of electrical energy.”
In accordance with Borowiak, two or three years in the past, there was no curiosity from the C&I market phase.
“Immediately, my firm prepares virtually day by day a proposal for 1 MW or 2 MW tasks and even as much as 5 MW arrays and all these tasks plan a PPA enterprise mannequin,” he added.
Nonetheless, whereas a PV system as much as 50 kW doesn’t require a allow, it often takes about 12 months to acquire all the mandatory permits for bigger methods. One other headwind is the present regulation that applies to the PPA market.
“The utmost PPA worth of round PLZ 350/kWh has been set and it’ll stay efficient for one 12 months,” stated Szymanski. “In different phrases, in the event you promote at a worth larger than the one set on the public sale and PLZ 50, you must pay the tax on all the quantity obtained above this worth, and this places some traders.”
Whereas the brand new regulation is anticipated within the PPA area in addition to relating to permits for the development of direct traces, trade insiders consider that not many adjustments will happen this 12 months because of the upcoming parliamentary elections.
In the meantime, the prospects for warmth pumps are shiny. Final 12 months, Poland was the quickest rising warmth pump market in Europe with 130% annual gross sales development. In accordance with native associations, no such soar is anticipated this 12 months, however the tempo of set up will proceed the momentum.
A number of the major warmth pump suppliers – Panasonic, Mitsubishi Electrical, and Daikin – had been informed pv journal on the Enex Expo that they had been caught up within the fast improve in demand seen final 12 months however that present lead instances have been lowered to about six months.
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