Poland will greater than double its put in PV capability between 2023 and 2025, based on analysis institute IEO. pv journal spoke with IEO researcher Agata Krzyżanowska about the primary drivers of the market, the trail of the public sale system, and potential grid constraints.
The put in PV capability in Poland will greater than double to 26,791 MW by the tip of 2025, based mostly on information from the Polish analysis institute IEO. Its newest report means that this 12 months, the nation will add roughly 5,981 MW, adopted by 4,392 MW in 2024 and three,996 MW in 2025.
“Essentially the most dramatic change and progress is predicted on the a part of massive farms and amongst business prosumers,” mentioned IEO researcher Agata Krzyżanowska pv journal. “Momentary issues with full entry to the grid and really excessive electrical energy costs for business shoppers will facilitate a sooner growth of investments by enterprise entrepreneurs in small installations as much as 50 kW or larger below the web billing scheme, which focuses on automobile consumption of inexperienced electrical energy.”
The IEO mentioned that the renewable power public sale within the 2016-21 interval was a hit and a stimulus for the event of many large-scale PV initiatives. They supply assist for six.8 GW of solar energy and 5.3 GW for wind energy.
“Nevertheless, within the years 2021-22, a lower in curiosity within the public sale assist instrument will be noticed, as a result of PV know-how is taken into account mature and power costs have grown throughout the gasoline blackmail interval in Russia and the electrical energy disaster,” mentioned Krzyżanowska. “Buyers have determined to construct farms on fully business rules, by promoting power out there, together with [power purchase agreements].”
Within the final public sale in 2021, traders provided solely part of the capability, leaving a big half for PPA contracts. With the introduction of a worth cap for PV and wind in 2022 and the discount of electrical energy costs in 2023, the upcoming autumn public sale is predicted to be extra engaging. Nevertheless, it’s anticipated that the public sale quantity will range sooner or later.
Within the interval 2016-22, the power costs contracted within the public sale system for PV farms decreased by 18%, whereas the common electrical energy gross sales worth within the aggressive Polish market elevated by 68%. In distinction, photo voltaic module costs skilled a big improve in 2021 and 2022.
“Based on surveys carried out by IEO amongst PV market members, in 2021, PV module costs in Poland will improve by 7%, and in 2022 – by 12% and inflation will likely be greater than 10% ,” mentioned Krzyżanowska.
Krzyżanowska mentioned that the builders of PV initiatives are additionally going through critical grid connection points in Poland. Nevertheless, these constraints don’t characterize an actual barrier to photo voltaic deployment.
“Constraints because of frequent rejections since 2022 of functions for grid connection are anticipated to not decelerate the tempo of growth of the PV business till 2025,” he mentioned. “There’s a 6 GW pipeline of initiatives with grid connection permits, and grid operators plan to broaden grid connection capacities for internet hosting PV within the coming years.”
Krzyżanowska talked about that the Polish authorities will present monetary incentives for the modernization of the grid by way of the Nationwide Reconstruction Plan and the EU Cohesion Fund. System operators are additionally anticipated to undertake a brand new strategy that considers financial wants and consists of technical options equivalent to cable pooling, hybrid installations, direct traces, and using batteries and others power storage strategies.
“Such measures have been authorised in June by the Polish Parliament,” he defined. “Moreover, the continued RES public sale system will stay open till 2027, which can undoubtedly contribute to the mobilization of economic establishments and additional progress of large-scale PV investments within the Vistula River nation.”
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