March 9, 2023: Nearly 70% of Europe’s whole deliberate pipeline of lithium ion battery cell manufacturing capability by 2030 is vulnerable to being delayed, lowered or canceled, in accordance with a brand new evaluation printed on March 6 .
The examine by the clear transport marketing campaign group Transport & Setting identifies round a fifth (285GWh) of the 1.8TWh anticipated potential of the EV battery manufacturing facility in Europe is at ‘excessive danger’ and an additional 52% ( round 910GWh) at ‘medium danger’.
In whole, 68% of Europe’s potential battery cell provide is in danger if additional motion just isn’t taken – and the EU can not fulfill battery demand with out imports from international rivals, the T&E.
T&E’s senior director for automobiles and e-mobility Julia Poliscanova stated: “Battery manufacturing within the EU is caught up within the battle between America and China. Europe should act or danger dropping all of it.
“A inexperienced industrial coverage targeted on batteries with EU-wide assist for scaling up manufacturing is urgently wanted to deal with US subsidies and years of Chinese language dominance.”
The examine will increase stress on EU leaders following disaster proposals unveiled in December by the European Battery Alliance to avert a possible collapse in funding for Europe’s gigafactory plans, amid fears that cash in as an alternative flows to tasks within the US and Asia.
The T&E evaluation is derived from publicly accessible data that examines the 50 gigafactories deliberate for Europe in 2030 — based mostly on maturity of tasks, financing, permits, secured manufacturing facility websites and hyperlinks of undertaking firms to US.
On high of China’s dominance of EV provide chains the US Inflation Discount Act, which is anticipated to pour in at the least $150 billion in battery parts and metals made within the US or ‘pleasant nations’, is “altering the foundations of the sport quickly”, the examine says.
When it comes to international funding in lithium ion batteries tracked by Bloomberg New Power Finance, Europe’s share fell from 41% in 2021 to a measly 2% in 2022, whereas funding in China and the US continued to development, in accordance with T&E.
Germany, Hungary, Spain, Italy and the UK stand to lose essentially the most if battery producers change their plans, in accordance with the examine.
“Tesla’s Giga Berlin plant has the most important volumes vulnerable to being delayed in Europe after the corporate stated it might focus cell manufacturing within the US to make the most of incentives beneath the Inflation Discount Act.
“There’s a medium danger to Northvolt’s deliberate gigafactory in Heide, Germany, as the corporate has solely acquired a part of the funding and has not but began development. Additionally, Northvolt’s CEO stated in October that the plant and prioritize US growth.
Italvolt’s Italian giga undertaking is at risk of dropping precedence in favor of its sister Statevolt undertaking in California.
The examine precedes the anticipated publication by the European Fee on March 14 of a ‘Internet Zero Industrial Act’, as a part of the EU’s response to the tax advantages and subsidies supplied by the IRA for the localization of US battery provide chain.
The examine’s primary suggestions embody Europe “locking in” the 2035 engine phase-out for brand spanking new automobiles and vans and introducing the identical deadline for vehicles.
The examine additionally joins the European Battery Alliance in calling for simplified authorization and approval processes for battery-related tasks, whereas guaranteeing “robust social and environmental safety and engagement with native communities”.
Easy tax breaks and manufacturing finance are additionally really useful for best-in-class tasks.
In the meantime, a brand new European Crucial Uncooked Supplies Act ought to prioritize EU tasks in refining, processing and recycling, whereas working with companions to import responsibly sourced supplies.
In a associated transfer, the EU and Canada have launched a ‘matchmaking’ service to encourage funding in companies crucial to battery manufacturing – click on right here to learn our separate report.