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Spanish PV market exposed to over-investment risk by 2030

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New information from Afry Administration Consulting means that solar energy producers in Spain may face costs beneath €20/MWh earlier than 2030 if renewable penetration continues to extend. Such low costs will make energy buy agreements (PPAs) and service provider tasks unprofitable.

From pv journal in Spain

In an occasion organized by Afry Administration Consulting, the implications of the closure of nuclear energy vegetation in Spain have been analyzed, and the potential deployment of photo voltaic and wind power to compensate for the lack of capability was mentioned.

Presently, there are 60 GW of accepted large-scale renewable tasks, whereas the Spanish photo voltaic affiliation UNEF is demanding an upward revision of the nation’s power technique to offer a further 65 GW of PV capability by 2030.

If the present price of deployment continues, it’s anticipated that there can be 75 GW of put in capability by 2030, exceeding the predictions of the present power technique. Solar energy is anticipated to exceed 50 GW, whereas wind energy could not attain 40 GW on account of approval course of boundaries.

Within the excessive situations modeled by Afry, the distinction in photo voltaic revenue between a state of affairs of reasonable renewables and excessive battery penetration and a state of affairs of excessive renewable penetration could be round €40/MWh, with the later falls beneath € 20 / MWh from 2025.

The consultancy agency emphasizes that there are various launched tasks whose realization is unsure and that the excessive renewable penetration state of affairs could have much less put in PV capability in 2030 than the brand new objectives proposed for the power technique .

Concerning storage, Afry recommended that as much as 17 GW, together with pumped hydro, could be worthwhile however would require incentives for set up. The consultancy envisages 3-4 GW of grid-connected electrolyzers by 2030 in a fundamental state of affairs.

As the value of photo voltaic declines, producers’ earnings lower, making energy buy agreements (PPAs) untenable when retail costs fall beneath the extent price of power (LCOE). Solely the federal government is prepared to pay above-market costs in such a state of affairs.

Early shutdown of nuclear vegetation will improve reliance on fuel mixed cycle vegetation, resulting in larger costs and extra volatility. This raises the query of whether or not to prioritize extra renewable technology with larger emissions or delay nuclear shutdown to cut back emissions and gradual renewable deployment.

A research of safety of provide within the occasion of a nuclear shutdown can be thought of mandatory.

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