pv journal: How will the worldwide marketplace for PV installations develop in 2022?
Jenny Chase: We have been stunned by the robust development in China, particularly for residential and business – we initially anticipated 99 GW of latest development in China this yr and raised that to 126 GW (DC). Our present estimate for the development yr is 268 GW (DC). Europe has purchased plenty of modules – over 72 GW – though we count on it to have solely put in about 42 GW, so there may be plenty of stock.
What was the most important shock for you this yr?
How excessive polysilicon and module costs remained till the tip of the yr, reflecting robust shopping for exercise that offset the impression of elevated provide. We have been additionally stunned that the Inflation Discount Act (IRA) was handed in america. The incentives within the legislation are large.
Will the scarcity of elements have an effect on the event of worldwide PV markets?
Transformers and inverters are nonetheless not simple to acquire, and module costs ought to proceed to say no. However these should not main bottlenecks.
What value development do you count on within the coming yr?
We count on the worth of polysilicon to fall from the present $35/kg to $10-$15/kg subsequent yr, and the free-on-board (FOB) module costs to $0.22/W in markets with out main commerce obstacles.
How will the enlargement figures develop in 2023 world wide – particularly in Europe?
We count on 316 GW of latest development worldwide, and 48 GW in Europe subsequent yr.
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